India vs New Zealand Set for Champions Trophy 2025 Final Clash in Dubai
The highly anticipated Champions Trophy 2025 final will see India take on New Zealand in Dubai on Sunday, March 9. This summit clash is a rematch of last Sunday’s fixture, where India emerged victorious. As the only unbeaten team in the tournament, India will look to continue their dominance, while New Zealand, having played across all four venues, will rely on their adaptability to challenge the favorites.
Historically, New Zealand has troubled India in ICC events, but recent form favors the Men in Blue, who have won six consecutive ODIs against the Kiwis, including three in ICC tournaments.
Team Selection Dilemma
Both teams have a key selection call to make:
- India must decide whether to include an extra seamer at the cost of Kuldeep Yadav, though this would weaken their spin options against New Zealand’s left-hander-heavy batting order.
- New Zealand may reconsider Will Young’s place in the XI due to his dip in form after his century in the opening match. Devon Conway could be an alternative to strengthen the batting lineup.
Dubai Pitch Report: Spin and Seam in Play
The final will be held on the same Dubai pitch that hosted the India-Pakistan match. The surface has been slow, favoring both spinners and seamers, while batters who have shown patience have found success.
A key trend in Dubai has been that the team whose spinners dominate usually wins. While the track offers some turn, it is not a rank turner. Quick and straight deliveries have been most effective, an area where India excels.
Spin Impact in Dubai (CT 2025)
- Balls hitting the stumps: 17 wickets, average 20.59
- Balls missing the stumps: 13 wickets, average 53.23
- Balls bowled over 90 kph: 16 wickets, average 25.50
- Balls bowled under 90 kph: 14 wickets, average 45.21
India’s spinners have bowled over 52.5% of their deliveries at 90+ kph, the highest among all teams, and 34.9% of their balls have targeted the stumps—a key factor in their success.
Matt Henry: India’s Powerplay Threat
New Zealand’s Matt Henry has been a formidable force with the new ball, picking up 10 wickets in 11 Powerplay innings against India at an average of 20.20. His World Cup semifinal heroics against India, along with a five-wicket haul in the group-stage match, make him a crucial player.
However, an injury concern looms over Henry after he hurt his shoulder in the semifinal. If fit, he will be a major threat to India’s top order, especially to Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, and Shubman Gill.
India’s Middle-Order vs New Zealand’s Spinners
New Zealand’s Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell have been instrumental in the tournament. Santner, in particular, has troubled Virat Kohli, dismissing him thrice in ODIs. Since 2022, Kohli has averaged only 26.80 against left-arm spin with a strike rate of 73 per 100 balls.
While India’s middle order, including Shreyas Iyer and Axar Patel, successfully tackled spin in the group-stage match, Santner’s disciplined stump-to-stump bowling (39.5% of deliveries hitting the stumps) could pose a challenge. However, Shubman Gill has been effective against both Santner and Bracewell, scoring freely without losing his wicket to them.
India’s Batters vs Spin in CT 2025
| Player | Inns | Runs | BF | SR | Dismissals | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Gill | 2 | 42 | 69 | 60.86 | 1 | 42.00 |
| V Kohli | 3 | 113 | 153 | 73.85 | 2 | 56.50 |
| SS Iyer | 4 | 126 | 175 | 72.00 | 2 | 63.00 |
| AR Patel | 4 | 67 | 71 | 94.36 | 2 | 33.50 |
New Zealand’s Key to Success: Rachin Ravindra’s Role
New Zealand’s Rachin Ravindra has been a standout performer, sitting just one run behind the tournament’s leading run-getter, Ben Duckett. However, his early dismissal in the last clash against India allowed Axar Patel, Ravindra Jadeja, and Varun Chakravarthy to dominate against the right-handers.
If Ravindra stays at the crease longer, Rohit Sharma may be forced to alter India’s bowling plans, which have been effective in squeezing runs in the middle overs.
The Sweep Shot: A Game Changer?
India’s spinners have been dominant, but teams have found some success using the sweep and reverse sweep against them.
- Pakistan scored 39 runs from 19 sweep shots
- Australia made 47/1 off 15 sweep shots
- New Zealand, usually a strong sweeping side, managed only 11 runs off 17 sweeps and lost Tom Latham attempting one
Daryl Mitchell, a key New Zealand batter, struggled in the last match, scoring a slow 17 off 35 balls after failing to execute his signature sweep shot against India’s spinners.
New Zealand: The Best Fielding Side
New Zealand has been the sharpest fielding unit in the tournament, boasting a 91.1% catching efficiency, far ahead of other teams. In contrast, India has been one of the sloppier sides, dropping seven catches and a stumping.
| Team | Matches | Catches | Drops | Catch Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 4 | 31 | 3 | 91.1% |
| South Africa | 3 | 20 | 4 | 83.3% |
In a match of fine margins, New Zealand’s superior fielding could be the difference-maker.
Final Verdict: A High-Stakes Clash Awaits
India will enter the final as favorites, but New Zealand’s experience across different conditions, their pace attack led by Matt Henry (if fit), and their world-class fielding unit make them serious challengers. India’s dominance with both bat and ball will be tested, and their ability to handle New Zealand’s spin threat and early swing will determine the outcome.
With a title on the line and a packed Dubai stadium ready to witness history, who will emerge victorious in the ninth edition of the Champions Trophy?
Stay tuned for the epic showdown on March 9!
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